CHARLOTTE, N.C. – The second round of the PGA Championship has concluded. While discussions about the mud balls that dominated the first day subsided, many players advanced, and the leaderboard remained remarkably diverse.
Some surprising names near the top after Thursday`s opening round couldn`t sustain their performance. However, 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas held firm and now holds the 36-hole lead. Perhaps the most significant development was world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler`s 3-under round, placing him in a strong position to contend for his third major title.
“I think most of me is just glad to be close to the lead. If you`re going to play a 72-hole golf tournament, there`s going to be days and stretches of golf where you`re not swinging it your best,” Scheffler said. “Over the course of a tournament this long and on a major championship setup, there`s going to be some bumps in the road. It`s all about how you respond to those. I did a good job of responding to those mistakes today and keeping myself in the tournament.”
Beyond that, Scheffler remains the favorite to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
Jhonattan Vegas leads at the halfway point; what are his chances of winning?
Jhonattan Vegas holds a two-shot lead entering the third round.
Mark Schlabach:
While `Johnny Vegas` might not be a universally popular winner among golf fans, his backstory is compelling given his career origins. He was a top junior player in Venezuela before moving to Houston in 2004 after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reportedly threatened to convert urban golf courses into public housing.
When Vegas arrived in the U.S., he reportedly spoke only a handful of English words and had a well-used set of clubs. He improved enough to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning pro, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before securing his first PGA Tour win at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has won three times since, most recently at the 3M Open in July.
Vegas mentioned not sleeping well before Friday`s round after finishing late the previous day. Sleeping on his first major lead likely didn`t help. Now, he`ll sleep on another two-shot lead heading into the third round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open, and this is only his third major start since then.
A double-bogey 6 on the 18th hole marred what was otherwise a solid second round for Vegas. He finished 1-under 70, leaving the course with a two-stroke advantage. After gaining nearly four strokes putting in the first round, he significantly cooled off in the second, losing almost one stroke. His play from tee to green, however, remained exceptional.
I would be surprised if Vegas manages a wire-to-wire victory at the PGA Championship.
Paolo Uggetti:
Data Golf estimates Vegas`s chance to win at 9.4%. Even with a two-stroke lead entering the weekend, this places him as only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% chance, three shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% chance, five shots back) complete the top three favorites.
The fact that Vegas not only stayed competitive in the second round but shot under par and maintained his lead is impressive. However, if I were assessing his true probabilities, I`d lean towards 5% or even less.
“I feel like my game is very complete, but I just haven`t been able to put it all together in a major,” Vegas said Friday. “I think I`ve been patient enough to not really get too down on myself for not playing well at majors. It`s just kind of one of those things that you`ve just got to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play good here. Unfortunately, it`s taking me a little bit longer than usual, but I`m glad that I`m in this position right now.”
As Mark explained, it would be a fantastic story, but if Vegas lifts the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it would rank among the most improbable major victories since Jimmy Walker`s 2017 PGA win, perhaps even more so.
Which player(s) outside the top 10 do you think could still win?
Mark Schlabach:
I picked DeChambeau to win before the tournament, and he remains within striking distance at 3 under. The LIV Golf League player recovered from an even-par 71 in the first round with a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is tied for 17th, five strokes behind Vegas.
DeChambeau is hitting the ball a long way at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting, unsurprisingly, has been solid. However, DeChambeau`s iron play is still slightly off, similar to the Masters, and he`s unhappy with his chipping (he lost almost two strokes Thursday and improved slightly Friday).
“You have to have your irons super precise this week, which we all know how good my wedges are, so that makes it a little bit more difficult for me,” DeChambeau said. “That`s OK, though.”
“It`s a great test. I`ve just got to have my putting a little more on and keep playing the way I am. It easily could be 7, 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So just keep moving along, and I think a 65, 64 is out there. I almost shot it out there today and I definitely saw it out there, I just didn`t accomplish it.”
Paolo Uggetti:
There are many notable players lurking outside the top 10. In a tournament that still feels relatively open, it could potentially be anyone`s game.
Nevertheless, even on a course like Quail Hollow, I anticipate the top players will continue to rise. And despite recent struggles in some major championships, perhaps no one is better at doing this than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has played two quiet but extremely solid rounds and sits at 2 under, six shots behind Vegas, entering the weekend.
“I think I`m in good position,” Rahm said. “Adding to the fact that I feel like I`m getting better, more confident with the swing. I made a lot of good swings out there today and gave myself plenty of chances.”
Discussion around Rahm in majors has focused on his inability to contend since winning the 2023 Masters. However, it`s easy to forget that at that time, he was considered one of the game`s most consistent and dominant players. He continues to accumulate top-10 finishes on the LIV tour, and it wouldn`t surprise me to see him make a charge for the top this weekend. He could certainly use it.
How far back is too far to still be in contention?
Paolo Uggetti:
Is it too bold to suggest anyone who made the cut could make a run? Probably, but this course setup, like many PGAs in the past, has kept the leaderboard relatively compact. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players like Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) could shoot very low scores and contend. From my perspective, the true benchmark leader in the tournament is Scottie Scheffler at 5 under, but that also implies Scheffler would have to falter, which doesn`t seem likely. Players like Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy would need to shoot in the mid-to-low 60s to have any realistic chance, but it`s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
A more pragmatic view suggests that 1 under is likely too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven shots behind the overall leader presents a significant challenge.
Who is your pick right now heading into the weekend?
Scottie Scheffler is just three shots off the lead heading into Saturday`s play at the PGA Championship.
Mark Schlabach:
I picked Scottie after the first round, and he improved by one stroke Friday with a 3-under 68, which was sufficient to place him in a tie for fifth. He showed improvement in almost every statistical category in the second round, except for driving (hitting only six of 14 fairways).
“I like the position I`m in going into the weekend,” Scheffler said. “Obviously, I wish I was a little bit further up the leaderboard. I think I got a lot out of my game the last couple days. I felt like, as the round went on, my swing continued to get better, and I was able to hit some key shots down the stretch to give myself some opportunities. Looking forward to the weekend.”
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, is the only other golfer in the top 10 who has won a major. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens seem unlikely to hold off Scheffler if he makes a strong charge.
Paolo Uggetti:
Scheffler feels almost inevitable, especially considering he hasn`t yet had a round where he`s performed like the undisputed world No. 1. However, part of me keeps returning to Bryson DeChambeau. He`s been far from perfect this week and is clearly still struggling with his approach game (ranking 77th in the field), but it also feels like he`s due for a round where everything aligns. His drive remains an incredible asset; he just needs to keep it in the fairway more consistently to have a chance.
What player missing the cut was the biggest disappointment?
Mark Schlabach:
There are many valid choices, as several of the world`s top golfers missed the cut, including Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over).
I would probably choose JT because I thought he had a genuine opportunity to perform well this week. He won just three weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and claimed his first major title at the 2017 PGA Championship, also held at Quail Hollow.
Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the first round) and 16 of 36 greens. He made nine birdies but also had far too many errors.
Paolo Uggetti:
I`ll go with Åberg. He had been inconsistent leading up to this week, but Quail Hollow seemed like a course that should suit his game well. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach. While the sample size is small and perhaps expectations have risen too quickly, this is now his second missed cut in two PGA Championship appearances.
