The second major golf tournament of 2025, the PGA Championship, is scheduled to take place from Thursday to Sunday at Quail Hollow Club.
Which players are predicted to win by our golf experts? Where do our betting analysts see the best value? Here`s a detailed breakdown of the top contenders and betting opportunities ahead of the 2025 PGA Championship.
Experts` Picks
Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. I believe in players hitting their stride, and Rory is currently there. Having achieved the career Grand Slam, he returns to a course where he`s won four times – it`s his territory. He`s set to win again.
Tory Barron: Justin Thomas. Perhaps influenced by recent performance, but JT seems ready to claim the PGA Championship for a third time. Ending his almost three-year win drought with a playoff win at the RBC Heritage in April and fresh off a second-place finish at the Truist Championship, his confidence is high, and his putting is sharp. He returns to Quail Hollow, where he won the Wanamaker Trophy in 2017. (Note: If Brooks Koepka wins when I haven`t picked him, I`m switching to LIV.)
Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. How many times will we overlook the World #1? People mistake his calm demeanor for a lack of competitiveness. The fierce competitor in him will be determined. Once again, he`ll prove them wrong.
Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas. Something clicked for Thomas in October 2024. He finished tied for second at the Zozo Championship and has been in elite form since. He returns to the site of his initial PGA Championship victory… and will win again.
Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy. Winning the Masters removed a significant burden. He might now play the most relaxed golf of the last decade, and a free-swinging Rory is formidable. Furthermore, with four previous wins at Quail Hollow, he truly owns that course. Get ready for career Grand Slam discussions!
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy. Sometimes the most obvious pick is the best one. He`s got the Masters and the Grand Slam off his mind and has been the best golfer in 2025. Add a course where he`s won four times that favors distance, and he`s the clear choice.
Andy North: Shane Lowry. He`s been playing exceptionally well, drives the ball effectively, and hits excellent iron shots.
Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau. If winning requires length off the tee, strong long-iron play, and consistent putting, Bryson fits the bill. He`ll want to show his less-than-stellar Sunday at the Masters was an anomaly and is coming off a LIV Golf win in Korea. He finished in the top six in four of the last five majors, including second place at the 2024 PGA Championship. He`s ready to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his U.S. Open titles.
Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy. He arrives at the PGA Championship having already won the year`s two most significant events – The Players Championship and the Masters. Fourteen years of constant questioning and pressure are gone. He has confidence in every aspect of his game and with every club. Mental, emotional, spiritual, and physical freedom. He returns to Quail Hollow, where he has the lowest scoring average on the PGA Tour among players with at least 20 rounds. Oh, and he`s won there four times.
Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy over Scottie by one stroke. Always support the Masters Champion at the PGA to keep Grand Slam talk alive this year.
Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy. Given Rory`s recent play and history at Quail Hollow, picking him feels almost too easy, but I can`t choose anyone else. Maybe we`re getting caught up in the moment – he just demonstrated how challenging it is to win one major, let alone two consecutively – but everything about this week at Quail Hollow perfectly suits the player who has undoubtedly been the world`s best golfer this year.
Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau. Quail Hollow is a vast course, as they say. This week, it`s also quite wet. DeChambeau`s advantage in length will be amplified, and I predict he`ll win.
Betting Roundtable
Betting Expert`s Winner Pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +475 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +775 |
Tyler Fulghum: Xander Schauffele (+2000). It`s difficult to avoid picking McIlroy or Scheffler, but their odds (+500 or worse) are quite expensive. If looking beyond the top two, Schauffele is a strong consideration. His disciplined and balanced game is well-suited for this tournament, which features long distances and deep competition.
David Gordon: Shane Lowry (+4500). A case could be made for Lowry to be ranked near the top of the second tier of players, yet his odds don`t quite reflect this. If the winner isn`t Rory or Xander, I`ll back the player currently third in strokes gained: tee to green, with top-six finishes in two of the last four PGA Championships.
Pamela Maldonado: Rory McIlroy (+475). I know he just won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is a different story; it`s his domain. The course perfectly matches his strengths – powerful drives and towering long irons – which is why McIlroy has won here four times. He knows every contour, and his playing style is ideal for this layout. The odds are short, but when McIlroy is at Quail, he`s defending his throne.
Top 10 Finish Predictions
Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550). Apart from Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers are largely out of the public eye. This offers value on these names in majors. Reed is another LIV player who has performed relatively well in majors since joining, outside of DeChambeau. He finished third at Augusta in April and tied for second in 2017 when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow.
Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140). DeChambeau has more top-five finishes (three) than any other player in the PGA Championship since 2020. His six major top-five finishes since 2020 have occurred at different venues, demonstrating his ability to contend regardless of course style. Length off the tee combined with shorter rough has favored recent winners at Quail Hollow (like McIlroy and Wyndham Clark). While I think Bryson is a great outright top-five pick, I`m opting for the top-10 prediction for more security.
Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190). Rahm drives long, is precise with long irons, and doesn`t shy away from challenging courses. Quail Hollow is built for players who can handle long par 4s and the pressure of the “Green Mile,” qualities Rahm possesses in abundance. Even on an off day, Rahm`s baseline performance can exceed most players` peaks. Even when his putter is cold, he remains a threat because his approach play creates numerous birdie opportunities.
Best Bets on Scheffler or McIlroy
Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). Finding an appealing plus-money bet for McIlroy is tough, but I like this one. McIlroy isn`t typically a fast starter in majors, but this is a course he dominates. Coming off the Masters win, he could begin here freely and confidently.
Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: Tournament Matchup (-110). Pam and Tyler have already articulated why McIlroy is the pick. While it feels intimidating to bet against a player who just matched the PGA Tour`s 72-hole scoring record in his last start, McIlroy has the advantage in course knowledge, length, and putting at Quail Hollow.
Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). The most significant challenge is behind him; he completed the career slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow grounded, composed, and in control. Golf demands both mental and physical skill, and he has clarity and confidence. If he simply plays his natural game without forcing anything, given his familiarity with the course, McIlroy`s focus will be sharp, and his game methodical.
Long Shot and Value Bets (100-1 odds or longer)
Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500). There`s little in Finau`s recent game to suggest he`ll contend, except for his driving distance. However, the odds are very attractive for a player of his talent level. The PGA Championship, unlike the other three majors, is the most likely to see a first-time winner emerge unexpectedly.
Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500). Tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and eighth the year before, McCarthy is one of only three players with eight or more rounds at par or better over the past two years at this course (the others are Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). His lack of driving distance is a concern, but he clearly compensates for it elsewhere when playing at Quail Hollow. His best finish this season was tied for fifth at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on tour. I`ll take a chance on his putting staying hot.
Pamela Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000). His recent form is intriguing. Over his last four starts, Mitchell has recorded five straight top-20 finishes, including a tied-seventh at the Truist Championship last week, showing a strong upward trend in consistency. His ball striking has been solid, and he`s been gaining strokes tee-to-green. He has two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, so odds of +320 for a top-20 finish are more reasonable, but a small bet on +11000 offers exciting value.
Additional Noteworthy Bets
Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165). Conners has won this market in four of the last five majors – the only exception being last year`s Open Championship – and in six of the last eight majors. He was the low Canadian at the PGA Championship both times over that period. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season are second only to Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished tied for 13th and tied for eighth in the last two years at Quail Hollow.
Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele. Thomas knows how to win here, and while Schauffele has the tools to contend, his approach game doesn`t quite match up. Thomas`s iron play is stronger, giving him an edge on a course that rewards precise iron shots. In a comparison of ball striking, JT`s consistency from tee to green makes the difference.
