How to bet on golf: Tips to win in 2025, plus U.S. Open picks

When considering golf bets, three key factors are often crucial: course suitability, recent performance, and past results at the venue.

• Course suitability assesses how a player`s strengths match the course design – is it a place favoring long hitters, precise iron play, or putting expertise?

• Recent performance looks at current results, player momentum, and confidence levels. A golfer playing well recently is typically a better bet than one struggling with their game.

• Past course history provides insights into a player`s comfort level at a specific location, potentially due to grass type or positive memories from previous events. Ideally, all three factors align. However, successful betting often involves identifying value by prioritizing one factor over others depending on the situation.

Understanding Your Betting Options

Betting on golf extends beyond just picking the champion. Many different wager types are available, some safer than others. Structuring your bets thoughtfully can lead to profits even if your top pick doesn`t win. Here’s a summary of common bets:

Outright Winner

This is the traditional bet: predicting who will lift the trophy. Given the large fields in golf tournaments, the odds for outright winners are usually high, reflecting the difficulty of hitting this bet consistently. While a winning ticket at high odds is exciting, relying solely on outright bets will likely result in many losing weekends.

Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes

These bets are more conservative, with top-20 wagers having the highest probability. Instead of needing your chosen golfer to win, they only need to finish within the specified rank range. A top-20 bet at odds like +120 might seem less thrilling, but consistently cashing these helps maintain your bankroll while you take shots on longer-odds outright picks.

Consider the difference: A golfer at 30-1 odds to win has about a 3.2% chance of winning. A top-20 bet at +200 implies a 33% probability. This significant difference explains why it’s often wise to wager less on long shots and more on higher-probability plays.

First-Round Leader

This adds immediate excitement. You only need your golfer to be leading after the first 18 holes, not the entire tournament. Since first-round leader odds are typically 20-1 or higher, these are usually bet with smaller stakes. Factors like early tee times, favorable weather, and aggressive players are key considerations for this bet. If you believe a player has winning potential, betting a small amount on them starting strong in Round 1 is a reasonable strategy. If successful, you might cover the cost of your other bets for the tournament.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Compared to picking an outright winner, matchup bets are more controlled. You are simply betting on one golfer to finish better than another, either for a single round or the whole tournament. This offers a less volatile way to bet. Betting on full-tournament matchups provides a bigger picture outcome over four days, while single-round matchups involve more variance. There are also three-ball matchups, similar to head-to-head but with three players, offering higher odds but also increased risk.

Props and Majors-Only Markets

Major championships often feature a wider variety of unique bets. Some appear weekly, while others are specific to the biggest events:

• Top National/Regional Finisher: Betting on the highest-placing player from a specific country or region (e.g., Top American, Top European).

• Hole-in-One Prop: Betting on whether a hole-in-one will occur during the tournament. A popular, fun bet.

• Lowest/Highest Round Score: Wagering on whether a player will shoot an exceptionally low or high score during any round.

• Make the Cut Parlays: Combining multiple players to successfully make it to the weekend (past the cut line).

Structuring Your Betting Card and Managing Size

Randomly placing bets without a plan is not a strategy; it`s a quick way to deplete your funds before the tournament even ends. Furthermore, betting the same amount on every single wager is inefficient and unwise.

Instead, I recommend building your betting card around a few core players and diversifying across different bet types to balance potential returns with risk. Because golf odds fluctuate greatly, your bet size should be proportional to the probability of the outcome.

This approach works because bets like top-20 finishes offer consistency, cashing more frequently and helping to keep your betting funds stable. Top-10 and top-5 wagers might use smaller unit sizes (e.g., 0.5 units), while outright winner bets, being harder to hit, would be even smaller (e.g., 0.2 to 0.25 units). First-round leaders are high risk but high reward, offering a chance for a large win from a smaller bet. Spreading your bets across different markets keeps you invested throughout the tournament. If your pick for the win struggles, a top-20 bet on another player might still pay off. Generally, the longer the odds, the smaller your bet size should be, as the implied probability of success is lower. Betting too much on long shots can quickly lead to losses if you hit a cold streak.

If you are betting on multiple players (say, five or more) in an event, your total stake needs to be carefully balanced so you don`t have too much exposure on any single player. Adding more players means you need to adjust individual bet sizes downwards to manage your overall risk.

PGA Tour`s Major Tournaments and the “Fifth Major”

Like any form of gambling, success in golf betting requires discipline and viewing it as a way to enhance your enjoyment of watching the sport. Golf betting can be challenging; don`t expect to pick an outright winner every week. However, by structuring your bets strategically, managing risk effectively, and diversifying your exposure across different markets, you can improve profitability and maintain excitement throughout the weekend.

The biggest events on the PGA Tour include the four major championships and The Players Championship:

• U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
• The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
• PGA Championship
• Masters Tournament
• The Players Championship: Held at TPC Sawgrass. Often called the “fifth major” due to its strong field, large prize fund, and challenging course. Although not officially a major, its drama, history, and the iconic 17th island green make it a highlight of the year.

Wagering Opportunities for the 2025 U.S. Open

The PGA Tour visits Oakmont Golf Club for the third major of the season, the U.S. Open. Anticipate a truly difficult test: dense rough, narrow fairways, exceptionally fast greens, and a winning score likely just below par. This course demands elite skill and mental fortitude.

Oakmont suits golfers who excel under pressure. It`s like a strategic game played in tough conditions. To compete here, players need outstanding accuracy off the tee, superior mid-to-long iron approaches, and excellent control on the quick, sloped putting surfaces.

Making par is a solid achievement at Oakmont. A round of -4 would be considered exceptional. Whether betting or building fantasy teams, focus on players comfortable grinding out scores in the low 70s rather than needing lots of birdies.

Let`s examine the third major championship of the year.

My Preferred Bets

Collin Morikawa Top 20 (+110)

If your betting approach values precision, control, and strong ball-striking potential, Morikawa is an excellent choice. Oakmont’s difficulty minimizes the disadvantage of his shorter distance, and his performance metrics on challenging courses (ranking fifth in strokes gained) indicate he embraces tough conditions. He ranks highly in approach play and accuracy, which are critical skills for Oakmont.

While his tournament wins in 2025 haven`t been frequent, he shows consistent performance with eight top-20 finishes in eleven starts. Morikawa is known for composure under pressure. His game typically holds up well when conditions are difficult, provided his short game is adequate.

Corey Conners Top 20 (+150)

Despite a T27 finish in his recent event, Conners remains one of the best value plays in the field. He is a top-tier ball-striker known for accuracy, is currently in good form, and is well-suited for Oakmont`s emphasis on discipline over driving length.

He ranks 11th in driving accuracy and has gained strokes tee-to-green in almost all his starts this year. While his short game can be a weakness, his strong ball-striking profile is exactly what helps players stay in contention when others struggle. Conners might not produce spectacular shots, but his steady, reliable play is often sufficient on a demanding course like Oakmont.

Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+260)

Bradley is one of the top ball-strikers in the field currently (ranking second over his last 32 rounds). His previous seventh-place finish at the U.S. Open in 2022 and recent top-10 finishes in major events suggest he has the capability to contend if his putting is solid.

He possesses the ball-striking quality needed to win, has an underrated short game around the greens, and his current odds seem longer than his form warrants. He`s a strong addition to a betting card, perhaps with a small wager on him for the outright win at 75-1 as a high-reward possibility.

Considering Scottie Scheffler

Truthfully, his odds are not favorable: -150 for a top 5 finish and +275 to win. However, this reflects his dominant form. Scheffler excels in virtually every aspect of the game and has no apparent weaknesses.

No other player is currently performing at Scheffler`s level. The -150 price for a top-5 is high but justified because Scheffler frequently delivers on expectations.

If the price is within your budget, Scheffler for a top-5 finish provides a stable, dependable element for your betting card. He has finished in the top five in six of his last eight events and leads the field in nearly all key strokes-gained statistics, including tee-to-green and approach shots. This bet is based on his proven consistency and form, not speculation.

If you`re looking for better value, consider alternative bets like Scheffler as first-round leader at 12-1, or wait for potentially better odds during live betting. Oakmont is a course where players often need to grind and simply survive tough conditions, which might create opportunities for live wagering. Betting on the lowest second-round score after the first round is completed could also be a good strategy, as Scheffler leads in Round 2 scoring average.

Unless you are using him as a base for a parlay or prioritizing safety from the start, waiting for live odds might be a smarter play, especially when other top 20 bets offer more value before the tournament begins.

And if he starts flawlessly and we miss out? Then we can simply appreciate watching a display of exceptional golfing talent.

Why I`m Avoiding Jon Rahm

Initially, after Rahm`s top-15 finishes in the Masters and PGA Championship, I considered betting on him for a top 10 finish (+130) or possibly the outright win (12-1). However, I`ve decided against it. He lost strokes on approach shots in all four rounds at Augusta, which is concerning for a player known for his ball-striking, particularly heading to Oakmont where approach play is paramount.

Although he performed better at the PGA Championship, that seems like a single positive event amidst less convincing results on the LIV tour, which carry less weight for evaluating form against top PGA Tour fields. Asking for a +130 price for a top-10 finish given this context seems too low. There appears to be some recent tension in Rahm`s game during top events that makes me hesitant. At a venue as demanding as Oakmont, I favor players showing poise and control over those who might be prone to frustration.